Analysis by Rafael Fakhrutdinov, here in The Multiplural World, May 26, 2025
(This analysis originally appeared on May 25 in the Russian daily newspaper Vzglyad. Translation to English by The Multiplural World using enhanced machine translation.)
Russian forces launched massive drone and missile strikes against drone production sites in Kiev overnight on May 23, 24, including the Antonov aerospace complex in Kyiv. Local air defenses failed to cope with the attack, resulting in large-scale destruction and fires. Nevertheless, Ukraine is finding ways to assemble thousands of UAVs from foreign parts in makeshift workshops. How can Russia destroy its enemy’s drone assembly complex?
Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported on its Telegram channel about a massive strike with high-precision weapons of sea, air, land-based and UAVs on enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine. It is known that the enterprises produce components of missile weapons: radio electronics, explosives, and rocket fuel as well as attack UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicle) for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
War correspondents are writing about fires at the ‘Antonov’ enterprise in Kiev, which is part of today’s ‘Ukroboronprom’ (Ukrainian Defense Industry) industrial complex. In Soviet times, Antonov was the largest aviation manufacturer in the world. Now, the former giant produces drones used to attack Russia, reports the Telegram channel ‘Shot’.
“Tonight, a total of 250 long-range kamikaze drones (Gerani and other types) and 14 Iskander missiles struck targets on Ukrainian territory,” writes the Telegram channel ‘Obsessed With War’. According to the channel, Ukrainian air defense was overwhelmed with a swarm of special target drones requiring expensive, anti-aircraft shells. “The Ukrainians simply do not have that much ammunition, barrels, and missiles for defense,” the authors explain. According to media reports, the attack lasted more than six hours. Several hundred explosions thundered in Kyiv, and fires broke out.
It has been suggested that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have begun using Western air defense systems against drones. The Telegram channel ‘Osveditel writes that numerous videos that have appeared online showing the work of German IRIS-T systems and American Patriots.
At some point during the attack, Kiev’s air defense stopped working, Ukrainian blogger Anatoly Shariy writes. He broadcast several videos taken by eyewitnesses, in which attack drones can be heard attacking targets without encountering resistance. At the same time, the author notes, up to ten drones hit one point without hindrance. Later, Shariy said that the air defense did start working, “but very sluggishly”.
“In the current tactics of massive strikes, one of the noticeable changes is the significantly increased level of Russian intelligence, including intelligence,” the Telegram channel ‘Specially for RT’ quotes a comment from Alexander Kots, a war correspondent for Komsomolskaya Pravda.
Kots also points out that Russia is developing a new generation of drones – jet-powered, which are already difficult to intercept by mobile groups with large-caliber machine guns. “In addition, the raids are of a combined nature, when decoys, cruise missiles, and ballistics are involved in the attack,” the author notes.
Yuriy Knutov, a military expert and historian of the Air Defense Forces, explains, “At the end of last year, Volodymyr Zelensky announced plans to produce 30,000 aircraft-type drones and three thousand missile drones. Of course, production means assembly from kits that come from abroad. The parts come in boxes and are often assembled in small workshops scattered over large areas, and then the finished drones are delivered to the troops. This production is not easy to track, and it is not always advisable to spend, for example, an Iskander missile to destroy a separate garage. The Ukrainians understand this, which is why they use such schemes.”
“Moreover, the components are brought in by any means and from everywhere. I personally studied the Leleka-100 drone, which Ukraine positions as its own development. On all the parts, that is, approximately every 15 cm, it reads ‘Made in USA’, or some European country is indicated for the electronics. Some of the spare parts are also brought from Canada, and the engines used are Chinese,” he detailed.
“The Ukrainians make the bodies of some UAVs from high-quality lightweight plywood. They are screwed together with bolts, then covered with a special film on top, which reduces radar visibility. After that, a second layer is applied, which makes the drone practically invisible at night. As a result, Ukraine received quite a lot of long-range aircraft-type UAVs. However, their mass production is largely ensured by large assembly sites like Antonov in Kiev. Therefore, we carry out selective but significant strikes on such objects. At the same time, we also strike at radio engineering production centers, destroying production as a whole.”
“The success of the recent strikes is explained by the fact that Russia is constantly changing the tactics of air attacks. Firstly, we are improving drones, increasing their speed, reducing their radar signature and increasing their warhead. Also, in addition to the cumulative charge, we have begun to use a thermobaric charge,” the analyst explained.
“In addition, our drones used to strike one after another, which simplified the task of destroying them, but now they gather at a certain point and attack in a swarm. Moreover, they began to fly at a higher altitude, which complicates the use of old air defense methods against them, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces still use.”
“One of the videos shows a target over Kiev being attacked by a whole line of expensive Patriot air defense missiles. You have to be either very rich or extremely incompetent to do that. In addition, such air defense work speaks of panic in the Ukrainian ranks.”
“We need to continue to hit the Odessa port, where containers with components and weapons from NATO countries are unloaded. The ammunition detonates, which damages the berths. The difficulty is that delivery to Ukraine is also carried out in civilian cars and in carriages included in the middle of a passenger train. Therefore, we attack the concentration points from where the equipment is sent to the troops,” he continued.
Knutov summed up: “It is important to study the drones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in order to use not so much fire weapons as electronic warfare systems. And if we talk about large-scale defense, then Russia needs to create a continuous air defense line from the Baltic to the Black Sea. It should include electronic warfare systems and anti-aircraft missile systems, reconnaissance satellites and radar stations, as well as balloons for reconnaissance.”
Denis Fedutinov, an expert in the field of unmanned aviation, explains, “Antonov is only a small part of the capacities where Ukrainian UAVs are assembled. The enterprise itself is quite large, and it is far from certain that the strikes inflicted had any impact on its production capabilities. In order to ensure that the plant is excluded from the drone supply process, its territory must be completely razed to the ground.”
“If we talk about the Ukrainian UAV industry as a whole, its enterprises were dispersed across the country in order to minimize the impact of Russian strikes. This forces us to look for other, more comprehensive measures. We need to reduce the volume of UAV component deliveries to Ukraine – engines, navigation and control systems, optical electronics, communications. To do this, it is necessary to use political levers – some of the systems mentioned are supplied by countries considered quite friendly towards Russia.”
“For physical suppression, attacks on transport corridors are needed – for example, the Beskydy Tunnel in the Carpathians, which, of course, is a difficult target. In addition, minefields near large logistics centers – the Odessa and Nikolaev ports – will radically reduce the ability to deliver weapons and military equipment,” the speaker continued.
“Finally, it is completely unacceptable that air traffic continues to exist in Ukraine, and some cargo, including military cargo, is delivered by air. This practice must be stopped until the conflict is completely over.”
