Commentary by Gil Yun-hyung, in The Multiplural World, Mar 25, 2025 (with related readings further below)
(Gil Yun-hyun is an editorial writer at The Hankyoreh, (South Korea daily newspaper), where this commentary was first published on March 24, 2025. The Hankyoreh publishes a full English-language edition online.)
U.S. President Donald Trump ostensibly launched his global tariff campaign in order to ‘make America great again’. But according to French historian Emmanuel Todd, Trump’s actions are better explained in terms of the U.S. ‘humiliating defeat’ at the hands of China and Russia.
In his 1976 book The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere, Todd accurately predicted the Soviet Union’s collapse 15 years later using longitudinal statistical data such as infant mortality rates. His 2024 book (in French) ‘The Defeat of the West’ (La Defaite de l’Occident) contains arguments that will be shocking for Koreans who have long taken American hegemony for granted.
The best physical manifestation of America’s defeat is the war in Ukraine. After the war began in late February 2022, the U.S. and the EU made a carefully coordinated response. Considering that Russia’s economy comes to around 3.3% of those of the Western powers (U.S., EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea), the calculation was that heavy sanctions against Russia coupled with support for Ukraine would quickly lead to Russia raising the white flag.
The reality was different. Russia evaded sanctions with the help of China, India and the Global South, avoiding the economic collapse the West hoped for. There were several ups and downs, but the war has progressed in Russia’s favor, and most recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin has effectively rejected Trump’s desperate proposal for a one-month ceasefire.
Why did this happen? Todd looks beyond the war and to the “fundamental changes” that have been occurring within American society. The West underestimated Russia and ignored the hollowing out of the American economy. A robust manufacturing base is critical to winning a war. Todd said he was shocked when he saw that the U.S. couldn’t supply to Ukraine with confidence artillery shells or other weapons. Russia currently produces around 250,000 shells a month; the U.S. has set its annual “objective” for this year at 100,000 shells.
As of 2020, engineers comprised around 7.2 per cent of American college graduates; in Russia, it is more than three times that rate at 23.4 per cent.
Todd says that while Trump is attempting to revive manufacturing industries in the United States, this will be impossible. Drunk on the dominance of the dollar, the U.S. has had no need to accumulate foreign currency for the sake of imports. The country’s faith-based social ethics which were part of what made American society robust during its golden era, have now collapsed. It’s now an empty country full of demoralized nihilists. The Trump factor is not a cause but a symptom.
Related:
China is fast outpacing the United States in PhD graduates in Science, Technology, Engineering, or Mathematics (STEM), report by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (Washington), Aug 2021 (29 pages)
